The bullying continues
China gets a lot of criticism for its bullying of other countries. But in many ways, the US is even worse. China tends to bully by threatening to do less trade when foreigners say things they don’t like. Everyone from Australian government to the NBA has been on the receiving end of Chinese government threats. But in the end, it’s possible to ignore those threats. Australians continue to criticize China. NBA players still have the freedom to criticize China (if they are willing to give up a bit of money.)
The US bullying is even worse. The US basically demands that other countries do what we say. Here’s a recent example:
Washington, D.C. — The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Division of Market Oversight (DMO) today announced it is withdrawing CFTC Letter No. 14-130 effective immediately. When DMO issued the letter on October 29, 2014, it took a no-action position with respect to the operation of a not-for-profit market for certain event contracts and the offering of such contracts to U.S. persons by Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand without registration as a designated contract market, foreign board of trade, or swap execution facility, and without registration of its operators. [See CFTC Press Release No. 7047-14]
DMO has determined that Victoria University has not operated its market in compliance with the terms of the letter and as a result has withdrawn it. As stated in the withdrawal letter issued today, to the extent that Victoria University is operating any contract market in a manner consistent with each of the terms and conditions provided in CFTC Letter 14-130, all related and remaining listed contracts and positions comprising all associated open interest in such market should be closed out and/or liquidated no later than 11:59 p.m. (EDT) on February 15, 2023. [See CFTC Letter No. 22-08]
Prediction markets are one of the few useful innovations to come out of the financial industry in recent years. We need many more of them. (Rajiv Sethi has a good post on this.)
It would be a terrible mistake for the US government to shut down a US firm operating prediction markets. Demanding that a New Zealand market cease operation is even worse. What right do we have to tell the Kiwis how to run their economy?
The US routinely forces foreign governments to bend to our will by threatening to shut them out of the global banking system. As bad as China’s bullying is (and it’s very bad), the Chinese have nowhere near this much power. I cannot even imagine the CCP demanding that New Zealand shut down this market.
PS. The FT has a good article explaining how fools in Washington and Beijing are blundering toward what could end up being a catastrophic war.
PPS. And then there’s Russia, which is a far worse bully than either China or the US. The world seems determined to replay the first half of the 20th century. Remember a decade ago when all sort of so-called intellectuals were complaining about globalization? Welcome to the world of nationalism.
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7. August 2022 at 10:06
While I am by no means a defender of China’s human rights violations and other questionable behavior, I fail to understand what the U.S. stands to gain from annoying Beijing. I’m also deeply disappointed with what, in my opinion, has been reckless behavior and rhetoric from Pelosi and the likes. The US-China relationship has already been increasingly strained + given the Russia/Ukraine situation and China’s refrain from getting aiding Russia to this point, now doesn’t seem like the best time to agitate them.
The world benefits—in many ways—from liberalization of markets and increased cooperation among countries. Guess I’m a filthy globalist.
7. August 2022 at 10:19
AJ, Exactly.
7. August 2022 at 16:50
Thanks for the mention Scott, I just posted a follow up:
https://rajivsethi.substack.com/p/predicting-rare-events
Rajiv
7. August 2022 at 19:25
“Demanding that a New Zealand market cease operation is even worse. What right do we have to tell the Kiwis how to run their economy”
Dont worry Scott we already shut down the predecessor iPredict years ago in NZ the US is already behind us in shitty regulation on this count.
7. August 2022 at 21:12
The CCP cannot be criticized enough.
https://videobanned.com/aiovg_videos/truth-all-coming-out-now-fb-will-block-this-so-watch-it-while-its-still-up-30-7-2022/
7. August 2022 at 21:17
The CFTC has been shutting down prediction markets for a long time. They shut down Intrade in 2012.
7. August 2022 at 21:17
@jack: “End the CCP”
https://twitter.com/jack/status/1555963290219692033
7. August 2022 at 21:48
Unlike every other vaccine for such things as tetanus, measles and polio, which all nave CPT codes used to enter adverse reaction data on VAERS,
THERE ARE NO CPT CODES FOR ANY OF THE EUA VACCINES FOR SARS-COV-2
7. August 2022 at 21:54
There is ZERO evidence that Pfizer, Moderna, Jansen or the other vaccine companies ever did any ANIMAL trials on the sars-cov-2 vaccines, BEFORE the EUA was implemented.
There is only one other time in human history that not animals but PEOPLE were used as experimental subjects in this way.
We prosecuted them in 1947 at the Nuremberg trials.
8. August 2022 at 02:25
Hm. My comment seems to be lost in auto-ban or whatever. Don’t know why though. Sry.
8. August 2022 at 06:57
Is COVID-19 a Bioweapon?: A Scientific and Forensic investigation – Richard Fleming, PhD, MD, JD
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0977KNFSY/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i0
8. August 2022 at 07:18
The PRRA amino acid inserts in SARS-Cov-2, the HIV glyco-protein inserts in SARS-Cov-2, the regional PRION domain binding agent in SARS-Cov-2:
ALL OF THESE SIGNATURES DO NOT EXIST IN NATURE.
The ‘bat lady’ from Wuhan laboratory ADMITTED IN HER 2010 PUBLISHED WRITING that the naturally occurring spike protein from horseshoe bat viruses was unable to attach to the ACE2 binding receptors in humans and that she and her team successfully genetically altered the spike protein to make it contagious in humans.
In fact they were very clear that they succeeded and were PROUD of having done it. They were very specific that they successfully recoded 5 genetic base pairs, which changed the amino acids from being added and thus a different protein being created.
Open Source information PROVES the SARS-Cov-2 virus was manufactured in a lab.
The entire ‘wet market’ hypothesis is a cover up.
Fauci lied that NAIAD/NIH never funded/approved ‘gain of function’ research at Wuhan. Subsequent document disclosures prove that they DID in fact fund and approve such research.
Fake News can’t stop the truth any more. Tech entrenched on their ability to control the narrative.
8. August 2022 at 07:28
The twelve nucleotide bases in the SARS-Cov-2 virus, which provide for four amino acids very specifically attached to the furin cleavage site DO NOT EXIST IN ANY OTHER CORONA VIRUS IN THE WILD.
Base nucleotide mutations occur one nucleotide at a time.
You’d need to come up with a crazy conspiracy theory on how TWELVE base nucleotides suddenly inserted themselves into this particular virus AT THE SAME TIME, THAT NONE OF THE OTHER CORONA VIRUSES HAVE, if your theory is not human created but ‘naturally occurring’.
And the US government just so happens to have a PATENT on that very gain of function biotech.
The ORIGINAL PREMISE, published in the Lancet Journal (which subsequently quietly announced a RETRACTION, AFTER the initial lie took hold by the fake news), was merely a declaration it is naturally occurring, YET WITHOUT A SINGLE ANIMAL MODEL, nor is there any other Corona virus with the PRRA insert.
8. August 2022 at 07:52
Sethi, Thanks. Very good post.
George, You respond to a post on prediction markets with an unhinged rant on various crackpot bioweapon conspiracy theories? OK.
8. August 2022 at 08:14
You respond to SOURCED statements re: SARS-Cov-2, connected to the very China context thread you started, including connected to past articles PUSHING the ‘wet market’ theory, and your only reaction is not to engage and disprove, but to invoke an Op Mockingbird induced ‘unHiNgEd’ and ‘RaNt’ and ‘cRaCkPoT’ and ‘cOnSPiRaCy tHeOry’ triggered reaction to statements inconsistent with your past statements?
Without having read or viewed anything that was posted?
That is the antithesis of academic ethics and professionalism. It is pure propaganda.
8. August 2022 at 10:01
George,
“Without having read or viewed anything that was posted?”
No one did, it is impossible to adequately evaluate the endless series of nonsense you are spitting out, and if we did, you would just ignore it. You have no actual interest in evaluating this in good faith. Your sources are nonsense.
In fact, you probably know this. You tempt people into a debate you don’t actually want to have, i.e. your a troll.
8. August 2022 at 11:00
Aladdin:
“No one did”
“endless series of nonsense”
Pick one. You can’t KNOW any of it is ‘nonsense’ BEFORE perceiving it.
“and if we did, you would just ignore it.”
That’s just a psychological projection of what YOU are doing, IGNORING the source material posted. You’re literally accusing me of exactly what you ARE doing.
“In fact, you probably know this. You tempt people into a debate you don’t actually want to have, i.e. your a troll.”
You mean you don’t prefer to address/engage the INFORMATION posted.
Forget about me as a person.
Focus on the INFORMATION and stop projecting your own narcissistic features onto other people.
In today’s news:
Joe Biden campaigned from his basement on the promise that he would not raise taxes for any American making less than $400K per year.
Biden now plans on hiring 87,000 new IRS agents and raising taxes for every American making over $30K per year.
During a recession, when gas prices and inflation are at record highs, Joe Biden wants to raise your taxes.
8. August 2022 at 11:34
George,
Not a single thing in that random word salad was of substance. It veered wildly from one subject to another, didn’t make a coherent argument, and was based in nonsense (we don’t use animal models in most vaccines, for reasons that should be obvious!)
8. August 2022 at 11:42
Aladdin:
Everything you replied to were line by line responses to your own statements.
If the logical structure was ‘random word salad’, it’s your own logical structure.
“we don’t use animal models in most vaccines, for reasons that should be obvious!”
This is factually incorrect. EVERY vaccine prior to the SARS-Cov-2 vaccines were animal tested, FOR OBVIOUS REASONS THAT HUMANS SHOULD NOT BE THE TEST ANIMAL FOR WHAT WILL BE INGESTED BY HUMAN BEINGS.
There was only time in history where animal testing was suspended in lieu of human test subjects. Those scientists were prosecuted at the Nuremberg trials.
Your mindset is so unbelievably contrary to basic logic and history that it is becoming more and more clear why your dialectic approach is substanceless reeeeeee’ing combined with accusing others of exactly what you’re doing. It’s a substitute for having a large gap in the information.
Your entire response has NOTHING to do with any of the INFORMATION POSTED, and yet you continue to reeeeee as if it constitutes an engagement of the information.
If you admit that your limited mindset prefers narrow echo chamber mantras devoid of curiosity and rational debate, that would be more accurate than whatever it is you think you’re accomplishing by DEFLECTING AWAY FROM THE INFORMATION POSTED.
8. August 2022 at 12:37
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/jul/26/senate-investigation-reveals-chinas-effort-to-infi/
“bEcAuSe WiThOuT sEcReCy aNd WiThOuT InFoRmATiOn FiReWaLLs, cOrRuPTiOn WiLL ReSuLt.”
8. August 2022 at 17:07
“The US routinely forces foreign governments to bend to our will by threatening to shut them out of the global banking system.”
Yes, and it doesn’t stop there. Trump’s maralago was raided by FBI agents today. Since when does the United States go after the political opposition with force? These are truly dark days.
The IRS, FBI and CIA are now political hitmen for the democrat party.
As we’ve been saying: the U.S. is a totalitarian country, both in and out, and it must be dealt with by the international community. I promise that if you go after Trump, this country will have a civil war. Don’t do it. Just don’t. Don’t go after the populist because you don’t like him. Huge mistake. And you will pay for that.
Your support of the CCP and their agenda is also disgusting, if not more so, than the thugs that exist within our government.
8. August 2022 at 18:16
You know, Sumner says these things, but he never does any critical thinking. He never asks himself “who” is causing these problems.
The irony is that the very people he supports are the very people who are part of this imposition — or in his own words “bullying”.
It’s the Pelosi’s, the Romney’s, the Clinton’s, the Biden’s, the Obama’s, the other mafiosi’s that are part of the “establishment”. It’s not Trump, Paul and Cruz who just want to put American interests first, and who don’t want to be involved in all of this foreign brinkmanship.
You can call Trump what he wants, but the people who support him are predominantly libertarian. They might not call themselves that, but their policy proposals are more in line with the framers than the establishment thugs that Sumner supports, but then bizarrely condemns. I mean, you get what you vote for. Keep voting for, and quoting, people like Romney, Bolton, Pelosi, Schumer, McConnel and others and you’ll continue to see more of the same. In fact, it will get worse because these people have a lot to lose, and they see their easy money slipping a way as the thugs keeping losing elections to radical left, and the libertarian right. There is no country more dangerous to the world than the United States, which is precisely why nobody in their right mind should EVER support NATO. NATO is as thuggish an organization as the old Soviet Union, and the current CCP.
8. August 2022 at 20:07
I’ve always been 100% in favor of globalization and free trade, only to be limited by legitimate national security concerns. However, I was long concerned that we weren’t doing enough to help the relatively small minority of Americans displaced by freer trade, technological change, etc.
What’s your current view on this? Do you think the US did enough to smooth some of the sharp corners of freer markets for those who haven’t prospered as much?
8. August 2022 at 20:37
“but the people who support him are predominantly libertarian”
hahahahahahaha … *catches breath* … hahahahhahahahah … wait, … hahaha hahaha that is the most ridiculous thing I have ever read. Wow.
I’m sure using executive power to threaten private corporations is your idea of libertarianism? Or banning Muslims by executive fiat. Or a drug crackdown. Or handing off all military policy to the DoD. I’ll wait
8. August 2022 at 20:49
George,
“This is factually incorrect. EVERY vaccine prior to the SARS-Cov-2 vaccines were animal tested, FOR OBVIOUS REASONS THAT HUMANS SHOULD NOT BE THE TEST ANIMAL FOR WHAT WILL BE INGESTED BY HUMAN BEINGS.”
Thats just false. Your wrong. I’ve developed these models. Some might be for safety, but those are toxicity studies. The vaccine is nontoxic, and mRNA tech did use animal (mice) models, so wtf are you on about? This particular mRNA strand did not? Well we don’t use animal models for every variation!
Because in case you haven’t noticed, animals have radically different immune responses and it won’t tell us anything.
“If you admit that your limited mindset prefers narrow echo chamber mantras devoid of curiosity and rational debate”
I apologize for overusing my echo chamber of data sciences who look into this kind of thing and not … various conspiracy far right nonsense.
Like what your doing is rational debate? Take your meds man.
I mean this is stupid right? I am extraordinarily nonconformist and disagree with everyone on just about everything and do form opinions from first principles …and your line of attack is how I’m entering an echo chamber?
Well all your doing is just regurgitating random right wing conspiracy pieces. That’s it. Your not rationally thinking this. Your the one in the echo chamber man.
9. August 2022 at 09:55
re: “Prediction markets are one of the few useful innovations to come out of the financial industry in recent years.
This is a good example.
Target Rate Probabilities for 21 SEP 2022 Fed Meeting
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
12. August 2022 at 06:11
Dear Scott,
I like the idea of basing policy decisions off prediction markets, but how susceptible are such markets to manipulation or attack? Say you had a lot of money in the bank and stood to gain if interest rates were kept high. Could you influence the market (again, using lots of money) by predicting high inflation, regardless of the “true” inflation likelihood?
Sorry if this question is old-hat or torch-and-pitchforky.
12. August 2022 at 13:11
John, That probably would not be a problem, but just in case I’ve advocated the “guardrails” approach to NGDP futures targeting. You can probably google one of my papers, or get my book entitled The Money Illusion.