Children are the future
Back in 2010, I predicted that India would have the world’s largest economy (in PPP terms) within 100 years. A few months later, I moved up the predicted date to 2081. Based on this graph, I’d now say some time in the 2060s:
Today, India and China both have a bit over 1.4 billion people. But look at the disparity in births! India has 23.2 million births, whereas no other country has even 9 million. By the 2060s, those Indian babies will be 40 years old, right in the prime age for working. As long as India can get its productivity up to half of China’s level (which seems doable in the long run) then it should surpass China in GDP (PPP). Of course, long before that the US will have fallen to third place. (We’ll still be number one in per capita terms, which matters for living standards.)
I used to find these sort of predictions to be sort of intriguing. More recently, they’ve started to seem kind of pointless. That’s partly because I won’t live to see how all this pans out, and partly because AI is eventually likely to transform the world in such a radical fashion that all predictions about the 22nd century become about as meaningful as those a 13th century peasant might have made about the world of 2024.
It isn’t just that India has more births than China, even pre-breakup Pakistan has more births. That’s crazy. (When I was young, Bangladesh was part of Pakistan.)
PS. This is one reason I’m not part of the natalism panic. Even with low birth rates, the world’s population will reach about 10 billion in 2100. And after that it’s totally impossible to predict anything. I’m not saying the birth rate worriers are necessarily wrong, just that no one knows what the 2100s will look like.
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25. July 2024 at 23:18
I think something will turn over the table on the whole demography issue long before 2100. Just speculating here, but I think there is a very non-zero chance that we have some kind of meaningful life extension or vitality extension (IE you still feel like you’re 30 even at 60 years old) before then. That changes the game on child-rearing – it becomes much less of a sacrifice of earnings and career for educated folks.
25. July 2024 at 23:58
And this highlights why you practice a psuedoscience.
You make a prediction, it doesn’t come true, so you “revise” and make another prediction.
This is what charlatans like Edgar Cayce and Nostradmus did. The Nostradamus quacks say things like Quatrain 35 wasn’t true, but Quatrain 63 was true. Nostadamus had a crystal ball because he was right once in a while.
This is the very nature of monetary economics, and most social sciences. Monetary economists, like Nostadamus Quacks, will say “But I was right about this, even those I was wrong about this.” You see. my model kind of works. It provides “some” value.
It’s a cult.
26. July 2024 at 01:11
Ditto on AI.
Tyler Cowen rhapsodizes about AI…but how will it affect productivity?
Will robots build cars? In factories served by self-driving trucks?
I have seen restaurants with robot servers. But then some diners just have you come to a counter and pick up orders.
Will a tech-centric nation like India leap-frog ahead?
If AI works at all like some say, the problem will not be labor shortages. Beyond that, a smaller fraction of jobs require heavy lifting anymore.
26. July 2024 at 04:32
Funny to think it could be Indians and Africans colonizing the stars. I don’t know if any mid-century American sci-fi author ever considered that as a possibility. Though obviously impossible to really predict. Who knows – it could be millions of cyborg Elon Musk-clones.
26. July 2024 at 06:03
I didn’t agree with you a few years ago, Sumner, but given the vastly growing gap between Chinese and Indian births over the past half decade, you are likely to be right. I do think Indian growth is likely to be overrated; I don’t think it can ever catch up to Brazil per capita.
26. July 2024 at 08:01
Brett, In addition, robot nannies may make child rearing easier.
Sara, “You make a prediction, it doesn’t come true, so you “revise” and make another prediction.”
LOL, My prediction for 2010 didn’t come true? Thank you Nostradomus.
Tom, In the next Star Trek film, the crew should be made up of blacks, Indians, Amish and Hasidic Jews.
26. July 2024 at 11:02
>PS. This is one reason I’m not part of the natalism panic. Even with low birth rates, the world’s population will reach about 10 billion in 2100
You are correct that predictions beyond 2100 are rather pointless. But you are wrong about the 10 billion population by 2100. World population is expected to peak at 9.4-9.7 billion by 2064-2070 and be well below 9 billion by 2100.
26. July 2024 at 12:05
@Machin S:
Good post, I agree on world demographics. We are all turning Japanese eventually.
27. July 2024 at 00:41
The US will most likely stay ahead of both China and India in per capita terms, but why so you expect them to be number one?
The US isn’t number one by that metric today. I don’t think that’ll change anytime soon.
30. July 2024 at 09:02
I don’t see India reaching half of China’s per capita productivity level.
I expect China to level out somewhere between Japan and US productivity, whereas I don’t expect India to ever surpass Mexico.